Could a Cold Winter be Brewing in the Atlantic?
“Onion’s skin thick and tough,
Coming winter cold and rough.”
Gardener’s Rhyme
The Farmers’ Almanac uses signs from nature for predicting harsh winters, such as woolly caterpillars, an abundance of acorns and the early arrival of crickets on the hearth.
But a new predictor may be above-average hurricane activity.
Hurricane Activity & Cold Winters
For reference, the average number for each category of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin is: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
In the past 50 years only 9 years (listed below) qualified for above-average hurricane activity in each category. And 6 of those 9 years were followed by near normal to colder than normal winters, starting in 1995 when there were 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
Will this year be an active hurricane season?
Well, in last Thursday’s update, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is a 50% chance for above-average hurricane activity this year, compared to a 15% chance for below-normal hurricane activity. Colorado State University has the odds at 55% and 10%. We’ll see!
The Skinny
Cold and severe winter weather often follows an active Atlantic hurricane season, especially east of the Rockies. Last winter was a good example, showing that cold winters still exist. That’s a good thing.
And current propane prices are about as low as they’ve been in some time. That’s also a good thing.
But total U.S. rig counts and capital expenditures from energy producers are falling as well. Many oil and natural gas producers are focusing on maintaining production levels and efficiency gains rather than growth, as they’re being squeezed on both ends by today’s low prices and high tariff costs on equipment materials such as steel.
The bottom line is that if you’re waiting to lock in a portion of your costs for October-April, or add some extra fixed-price winter volume, you may want to call your Ray Energy sales representative sooner than later.
NOTE: The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, unless attributed to a third-party source, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ray Energy Corp, its affiliates, or its employees. The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by the author to be reliable. However, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor does the author recommend that the attached information serve as the basis of any buying decision and it has been provided to you solely for informational purposes.
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